The 21st Century Takes Shape: U.S. China. India.

Obama greeting India's Singh. More than a fortuitous coincidence.

Neither Henry Kissinger nor Prince Metternich could have written a better script. In just a brief ten days, America deftly demonstrated how it plans to remain the globe’s most powerful strategic player well through the 21st Century. In these ten days, an American president, first touching down in Shanghai and Beijing, solidified U.S. relations with China, the world’s most populous country and soon-to-be #2 economic power, and then, back in Washington barely 100 hours, lavishly and effusively welcomed the leader of India, on track to exceed China in population by mid-century and on-track too to become the world’s #3 economic power. For both China and India, the U.S. has become the most important relationship – and, significantly, vice versa.

Whether Barack Obama’s China/India meetings were deliberately planned to be breathtakingly back-to-back or whether the scheduling merely was fortuitous coincidence, the result is the same: A subtle diplomatic master-move showing how Washington, in the decades ahead, if it is smart, sensitive and perceptive, can use its unique relations with each Asian giant to keep America at the center of global power and, as critical, to keep unavoidable U.S.-China, U.S.-India, China-India differences and rivalries from degenerating into conflicts.

Shifting gravity.
Some may scorn that this is a return to “balance-of-power” calculations. Scorn or not, the reality of the 21st century geostrategic landscape will be its shifting center of gravity away from the Atlantic and Europe (where it has been for centuries) to the Pacific and Asia, dominated by America and the two huge Asian powers. In this landscape, it will be America, with its ability to pivot economically and militarily, which can keep the forces in balance. To be sure, it will not be a crass, simplistic matter of Washington playing an “India card” against Beijing or a “China card” against Delhi. Rather, it will be a matter of the U.S. being so actively engaged that, at critical moments of tensions, neither Beijing nor Delhi would want to risk souring its indispensable relationship with America.

And actively engaged was America these past two weeks. In China, from November 15-18, Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao built solidly on the maturing U.S.-China relationship. [See my previous  posting, “Obama in China: An Unwise Rush to Judgment”]. The visit’s tone was warm and friendly. At the end, each president highlighted how special they viewed the ties with each other. Hu talked about a U.S.-China “partnership.” And Obama declared that “the relationship between the United States and China has never been more important.”

Then, on November 22, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh arrived in Washington. If the mood of the Obama-Hu meeting had been warm but button-down proper, with Singh it was overdrive lush and effusive. He was treated to Obama’s first State Dinner; no small honor. The sparkling setting, elegant protocol and star-studded guest list all were designed to flatter. And, according Indian press reports, flatter they did. To Indian reporters Singh later gushed: “It was a unique experience. The dinner was lavish and extravagant. The atmosphere and the layout were outstanding…President Obama and his wife laid out one of the best dinners and went out of the way. The people who had come in and the gathering in itself is a statement…It was a great experience and I enjoyed being there. It was one of the best dinners that I have attended.” Writes the Hindustan Times: “The grand and glamour-filled State dinner was choreographed to send the powerful message that the U.S. saw India as an ‘indispensable partner’ in handling global challenges of the 21st century.”

Relations transformed.
This, indeed, is the message that Obama and Singh repeated throughout the visit. Obama emphasized how much the U.S. and India, “the world’s largest democracies,” had in common, talking about “two proud people who struggled to break free from an empire and declare their independence,” about how both countries are “entrepreneurial” and “multiethnic” and “believe in human rights and core freedoms.” Flatteringly, he referred to India as “a rising and responsible global power,” a “leading economy” and “as nuclear powers…full partners” with the U.S. Several times he hammered home the key bottom-line: “As we work to build the future, India is indispensable [and]…the relationship between the United States and India will be one of the defining partnerships of the 21st century.”

It doesn’t get more effusive than that. And it almost left Singh breathless. He thanked Obama for his “strong commitment to the India-U.S. strategic partnership” and expressed his delight that “our relations have been transformed.”

Transformed they are. Just a decade or so ago, the embracing warmth of the Singh visit would have been inconceivable – even shocking. Throughout the Cold War, after all, India, despite pious professions of “nonalignment,” had aligned closely with Moscow and was nasty and hostile to the U.S. This began changing when India, turning its back on its failing socialist policies, recognized the huge advantages of a free market economy. Improving relations accelerated dramatically when the recent Bush Administration gave a top priority to improved ties with Delhi. So warm, in fact, had U.S.-India relations grown under Bush, that India recently actually was expressing concern that Obama was focusing too exclusively on China and that India was slipping among America’s priorities. Well, the Washington-welcome Singh received has allayed these concerns. Stated the Times of India on its front page: Obama “hit all the right buttons … to erase any impression that he had downgraded ties with New Delhi in deference to China.”

One plus two.
Indeed. It greatly serves our interests to keep upgrading our ties with India and China. As the 21st century takes shape, they, along with America, will dominate the world’s stage. Foreign affairs experts and observers already are saying that the term “G-20” (referring to the “group” of the 20 most influential nations) is outdated, overtaken by a “G-2” – the U.S. and China. In short time, India will make it a “G-3.” More accurately, however, if future U.S. actions will be as skilled and deft as they were these past two weeks, it will be a G-1 plus 2, with America remaining the world’s leading power.

Click Here to Comment on This Post